The words gave her a chill, as they always did. The Stark words. Every noble house had its words. Family mottoes, touchstones, prayers of sorts, they boasted of honor and glory, promised loyalty and truth, swore faith and courage. All but the Starks. Winter is coming, said the Stark words. Not for the first time, she reflected on what a strange people these northerners were.
The Stark words are one of the most widely known and analyzed lines in A Song of Ice and Fire. Even people who have never read the books or seen the show have heard these words, because it’s such a memorable, stark warning. Our attention is drawn immediately to it, and even with the fall of Winterfell and House Stark, these words still carry meaning. Their legacy resonates through the North, and it will continue into The Winds of Winter and A Dream of Spring. That’s because the Stark words are not a warning, or at least that’s not the whole truth. It’s a threat.
No, this is not about the apocalypse.
Bear Island knows no king but the King in the North, whose name is STARK.
A defining trait of the Northern houses is the honor and loyalty they display to House Stark. The north remembers, and it will not stand a mummer’s farce. Wyman Manderly will wager his life and his men to restore the Starks to Winterfell. Alys Karstark, fleeing for her own safety, seeks out Jon Snow, last known living son of House Stark, to shelter her, despite his brother executing her father and the sworn vows of the Night’s Watch. We see evidence of a Great Northern Conspiracy against House Bolton.
Machiavelli posited that it is better to be feared than loved, if one cannot be both, but it is best to be both. Fear will keep subjects in line at the cost of creating hate and revolution among the downtrodden, while love will keep revolution at bay at the cost of appearing weak and easier to revolt against. To be feared and loved is to balance these two forces and create peace and stability.
That is the power of House Stark.
Winter falls. That’s inevitable. What no one knows is when it falls. There exists no predictive model of the seasons – rather, they are merely observed by the maesters. For all anyone knows, the days could grow colder tomorrow, or the day after, and so on, and when the harvest comes and the crops begin to wither, you want to have your people at home to work and your wealth safe and plentiful.
When the snows fall and the white winds blow, the lone wolf dies, but the pack survives. Summer is the time for squabbles. In winter, we must protect one another, keep each other warm, share our strengths.
This is why the Stark words remind us that winter is coming. That’s the threat hidden under the surface. It asks ‘when the snows fall and the white winds blow, do you want to be with us or against us?’ Begin a rebellion now, but remember that winter is coming. It could be today. It could be tomorrow. It could be months or years from now, but it’s coming, and do you want to be the one cast out into the snow?
Or, if you bend the knee and swear fealty to House Stark, you will be protected when winter comes. The people will not starve. The lords’ lands and wealth will be preserved. You will not have to worry about a neighbor attacking you when you’re at your weakest, or your rivals pillaging and burning your stores. The Stark peace will end that. The pack survives, and the direwolf is the first and greatest of the pack. Remember, winter is coming, and we will guard and save you.
The North is a vast and harsh land, and yet it has been held together for thousands of years by House Stark. It has been proposed in the past that “Winter is Coming” heralds the Long Night and the return of the Others – even that the Starks may have used the Others like the Targaryens used the dragons to conquer the North – and these may be true, but I propose another, parallel line of thought:
The Stark words are social engineering – their very existence justifies Stark rule, and it inspires not just fear but love in their subjects. By embracing this philosophy – by weaving it so deeply into the fabric of Northern culture that it is taken for granted – House Stark has been able to rule the North for thousands of years, and now that they’ve fallen, these words will drive the lords of the North to return them to power.
Winter is coming. The North remembers that.